8501.0 - Retail Trade, Australia, Jun 2006

ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 02/08/2006

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Main Features
About this Release

JUNE KEY FIGURES

		Jun 06	May 06 to Jun 06
		$m	% change

Turnover at current prices
	Trend estimates	18 013.9	0.5
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	18 036.7	1.0

		Jun Qtr 06	Mar Qtr 06 to Jun Qtr 06
		$m	% change

Turnover, in volume terms
	Trend estimates	52 301.9	1.0
	Seasonally adjusted estimates	52 288.8	0.6

Monthly turnover, Trend estimates - % change
Graph: Monthly turnover, Trend estimate, Percentage change

Quarterly turnover, in volume terms - Trend estimates
Graph: Quarterly turnover, in volume terms—Trend estimates

JUNE KEY POINTS

TREND ESTIMATES

The trend estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 0.5% in June 2006. This follows a revised increase of 0.6% in May and an increase of 0.6% in April 2006.
In June 2006, the Northern Territory (+1.3%) had the largest increase in the trend estimate, while Tasmania (-0.2%) was the only state with a decline.

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES

The seasonally adjusted estimate of turnover for the Australian Retail and Hospitality/Services series increased by 1.0% in June 2006. This follows a revised decrease of 0.2% in May 2006 and a revised increase of 1.0% in April 2006.
All states and territories had an increase in the seasonally adjusted estimate.

ORIGINAL ESTIMATES

In original terms, Australian turnover increased by 0.8% in June 2006 compared with May 2006. Chains and other large retailers (which are completely enumerated) increased by 1.8%, while the estimate for 'smaller' retailers (the sampled units) decreased by 0.6%.
Australian turnover increased by 6.0% in June 2006 compared with June 2005. Chains and other large retailers increased by 5.9%, while 'smaller' retailers increased by 6.3%.

VOLUME MEASURES

The trend volume measure of turnover increased by 1.0% in the June quarter 2006. This follows a 1.1% increase in the March quarter 2006. In seasonally adjusted terms, the volume measure increased by 0.6% in the June quarter 2006. See Notes for details of the treatment of the reduced volume of banana sales in this quarter's chain volume estimates.

NOTES

FORTHCOMING ISSUES

ISSUE	Release Date
July 2006	30 August 2006
August 2006	3 October 2006
September 2006	2 November 2006
October 2006	30 November 2006
November 2006	9 January 2007
December 2006	5 February 2007

CHANGES IN THIS ISSUE

Quarterly chain volume data are shown in tables 14 and 15 of this issue. A new base year, 2004-05, has been introduced into the chain volume estimates which resulted in revisions to growth rates in subsequent periods. In addition, the chain volume estimates have been re-referenced to 2004-05, thereby preserving additivity in the quarters after the reference year. Re-referencing affects the levels of, but not the movements in, chain volume estimates.

CHAIN VOLUME MEASURES

The retail turnover volume measures are fixed-weighted volume measures using the relative prices of retail sales in 2004-05 as weights. The large drop in sales of bananas in the June quarter 2006 caused by supply shortages as a result of the damage from Cyclone Larry (around 80% according to industry sources) is reflected in the June quarter volume measures.

The changes in the implicit price deflator (IPD) for food retailing that can be derived by dividing the current price estimate of food retailing by the volume measure of food retailing, do not align with the changes in the food group in the consumer price index (CPI). This is because the IPD reflects current period weights and so has a lower weight applied to bananas than is the case with the CPI.

CHANGES IN TIME SERIES SPREADSHEETS

Time series spreadsheets will be released in Excel format for the first time with the July 2006 issue of this publication. A concordance between the current Lotus 1,2,3 spreadsheets and the proposed Excel spreadsheets is available in Information Paper: Changes to Spreadsheets for Retail Trade, Australia (cat. no. 8501.0.55.004), which was released on 5 July 2006.

INQUIRIES

For further information about these and related statistics, contact the National Information and Referral Service on 1300 135 070 or Graham Phillips on Canberra (02) 6252 5625.

INDUSTRY TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

TOTAL RETAIL

There has been moderate trend growth for the last seven months. Food retailing (seven months) and Household good retailing (six months) have had moderate trend growth, and Hospitality and services has had moderate to strong growth for at least 15 months. Other retailing has had strong trend growth for eight months. Department stores and Clothing and soft good retailing have had weak growth for the last three months.

FOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate growth in the trend since December 2005. The Northern Territory has had strong trend growth for the last five months. Queensland and Victoria had moderate trend growth in June 2006 after strong growth for three and four months respectively, and Western Australia has had three months of moderate trend growth.

DEPARTMENT STORES

There has been weak trend growth for the last three months. New South Wales had weak trend growth in this period, Queensland had weak growth in the last two months and the Australian Capital Territory had weak growth in June and was flat in May. Western Australia had moderate trend growth in the last two months after five months of strong growth. Victoria and South Australia were in decline in the last two months.

Graph: Industry trends_Department stores

CLOTHING AND SOFT GOOD RETAILING

The trend growth has been weak for the last three months. The Northern Territory and Western Australia have had strong trend growth for four and nine months respectively. New South Wales (four months), Queensland (three months), South Australia (two months) and the Australian Capital Territory (six months) have had moderate trend growth, while Victoria and Tasmania have been in decline for at least three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Clothing and soft good retailing

HOUSEHOLD GOOD RETAILING

There has been moderate trend growth for six months. New South Wales has had weak growth for eight months and Victoria for the last two months, while Queensland has had moderate trend growth for the last two months. All other states have had strong trend growth for at least three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Household good retailing

RECREATIONAL GOOD RETAILING

The trend has been in decline for 14 months. Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania have been in decline for at least three months, and South Australia went into decline in June 2006. In contrast, New South Wales has had strong trend growth for three months and the Northern Territory for five months. The Australian Capital Territory has been flat for three months.

Graph: Industry trends_Recreational good retailing

OTHER RETAILING

There has been strong growth in the trend for the last eight months. Victoria has had strong trend growth for seven months, while Queensland had moderate growth in June 2006 after eight months of strong growth. Trend growth in Western Australia and South Australia was in decline in the last two and three months respectively.

TOTAL RETAIL (EXCLUDING HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES)

Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has had moderate trend growth in the last seven months. Over the last six months, the trend growth for Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services) has been the same as for Total industries (including Hospitality and services).

Graph: Industry trends_Total retail (excluding Hospitality and services)

HOSPITALITY AND SERVICES

There has been moderate or strong growth in the trend for at least 15 months. Victoria, Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory have had strong growth for at least six months, while New South Wales has had moderate trend growth in the last three months. Trend growth has been slowing in South Australia (weak growth in last two months), Northern Territory (weak growth in June 2006), Queensland and Tasmania (in decline for five months).

Graph: Industry trends_Hospitality and services

STATE TRENDS

MONTHLY SEASONALLY ADJUSTED AND TREND ESTIMATES

NEW SOUTH WALES

There has been moderate trend growth for eight months. Recreational good retailing has had strong growth for the last three months. Clothing and soft good retailing, Other retailing and Hospitality and services have had moderate trend growth over the last three months, while all other industries had weak trend growth in this period.

VICTORIA

There was moderate trend growth in June 2006 after five months of strong trend growth. Food retailing had moderate trend growth in June after four months of strong growth. Hospitality and services and Other retailing have had strong trend growth for seven months. Department stores was in decline for the last two months.

QUEENSLAND

There has been mostly moderate trend growth for at least 15 months. Food retailing and Other retailing had moderate trend growth in June 2006 after strong growth for three and eight months respectively. For the last two months, Clothing and soft good retailing and Household good retailing had moderate trend growth and Department stores had weak trend growth.

SOUTH AUSTRALIA

The trend growth was weak in June 2006 after three months of moderate growth. For the last two months, Food retailing and Hospitality and services had weak trend growth and Clothing and soft good retailing had moderate growth. Household good retailing had strong trend growth over the last four months, while the remaining industries were flat or in decline in the last three months.

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

In June 2006, the trend growth was moderate after five months of strong growth. Clothing and soft good retailing, Household good retailing and Hospitality and services have all had at least six months of strong trend growth. Department stores had moderate trend growth in May and June 2006 after five months of strong growth. Food retailing has had moderate trend growth for the last three months.

TASMANIA

The trend has been in decline for the last three months. The trends for Clothing and soft good retailing (three months), Hospitality and services (five months) and Recreational good retailing (seven months) have been in decline. Food retailing was flat in June 2006. Household good retailing has had strong trend growth over the last three months.